The Models · Player Props

Today's prop leans, ranked.

The model's most distinctive player-prop reads — our projected probability, the fair (no-vig) price it implies, the reason, and the player's real season history. Ranked by value, best first. Filter by market to browse a whole category. Drop in your book to see the edge. Leans, not bets.

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Only distinctive reads make the board: an elite or dead-cold to-hit spot, a live power spot, or a starter clearing his strikeout number. Everyday 60–70% "to record a hit" lines are left off the default board on purpose — that's just baseball, not an edge — but tap Hits above to browse the whole category. Conviction is the model's probability for the outcome; "fair" is the no-vig price it implies. Same regressed, matchup- and park-adjusted math as the projected box scores.