NFL · Spreads & Totals
What backs this: walk-forward backtest 2017–2024, re-run in CI on every change · every call graded on the public ledger below · sealed calls revealed after they settle · per-game 10,000-run sim from the model's real error distribution.
MLB · Win Probability
What backs this: live standings + confirmed lineups + Statcast-blended starters · validated on 4,221 games (2024–25 replay in CI: beat the 54%-home baseline on Brier and log loss both seasons) · every lean = a 10,000-run Monte Carlo, published only at ≥55%, graded nightly below.
The MLB Model
NBA · Spreads & Totals
What backs this: 3,697-game walk-forward backtest (2022–24) · roster-aware power ratings refreshed daily · star-availability gate seals unresolved games · per-game 10,000-run sim · graded in public from opening night.
The NBA Model
Built on the same market-anchored architecture as the NFL model and validated the same way:
a strict walk-forward over three seasons (3,373 lined games) landed within
0.05 points of the Vegas line on spreads —
market-grade, with no betting edge found anywhere,
and we’ll say so on every pick. It goes live at opening night of the 2026–27 season:
nightly spread and totals leans, graded in public, served under the same pick standard as
everything else. Nothing flagged as a bet unless it earns it.
Arrives October 2026 · validated July 2026